Solution Mapping - Part 1

Do this.  Take a sheet of paper, imagine that this piece of paper represents ‘all  solutions to a problem’.  Now, draw a line up the centre and at the top write “Possible” and at the bottom write “Impossible”. Next, draw a line across the centre, label the left end “Undesirable” and the right end “Desirable”.

Normally, when you look for a solution to a problem, you search in sector defined as ‘Desirable and Possible’, this is logical, because these are the type of solutions you want.

But if you have a particularly difficult problem and you can’t find any solutions in that sector?  Logic will not provide a solution.

Since this piece of paper represents ‘all solutions’, the only place you will find a solution (if one exists) is in one of the other sectors.  The problem is that these are all  undesirable and/or impossible.  Therefore, you have two options,

• You can modify one of these unacceptable solutions in some way so as to move it into the desirable/possible sector, or
• You can do something to move either of the axes so that the solution becomes desirable or possible.

To do this you need to change are your assumptions, or the operating environment, etc.

Solutions mapping has a further benefit.  If you are brainstorming for possible solutions, you place each one in the appropriate sector.  As the session proceeds you will build up a map of the solutions you are getting and if you are not getting a similar number of undesirable/impossible solutions, you are not pushing the envelope sufficiently!  Make sure you get many of these solutions,

- Because these are what provide breakthrough solutions.

How do you catch a cricket ball?

Did you ever think about how a fielder in a cricket match manages to catch the ball?  Probably not.  But think about it.  The batsman hits the ball and it travels in an arc, and probably across the line of vision of the fielder.  Furthermore, its path will be affected if the ball is spinning and the wind is blowing. 

How does the fielder know what to do?

A physicist or a mathematician would need to work out the forces acting on the ball, how fast the fielder can move in order to work out where the fielder will meet the ball.  All of which are extremely complex and impossible to calculate in the time available.

So how is it done?  Well it is much simpler than the physicist’s method.  Basically, the fielder runs in the direction which minimises the apparent movement of the ball relative to him.  And if he continues to do that, the ball and he will arrive at the same place at the same time. 

The fielder solves the problem by using a heuristic process, essentially a ‘rule of thumb’, a shortcut that works for very specific problems.  Heuristics are very practical, we use them all the time because they are quick and make problem solving much easier.  

Unfortunately, because we use them so often, we get out of the habit of thinking originally, we make the same assumptions and use the same old ways to solve problems.  For this reason it is important that we identify the assumptions relating to a difficult problem and the thinking (or not) that goes with them.

If you have an Impossible Problem - Break the Rules

I was talking to a friend about my next blog, I rashly asked him to suggest a topic. He suggested that I write about the Irish economic crisis. 

Now I am not an economist, but the more I thought about it, the more complex it became.  The first issue was ‘defining the problem’.  What exactly is Ireland’s problem?  - that depends on who you are.  The nature of the problem depends on which group of stakeholders you belong to, and the list is almost endless.  Bankers, bank shareholders, economists, politicians, taxpayers, workers, the UK treasury, UK taxpayers, the ECB, EU politicians, etc. - each will have a slightly different view on what the problem is and how to solve it. 

So then I started to think about how other economic disasters were resolved.  Argentina is an interesting case.

In 2001-2, Argentina suffered an economic collapse.  The causes were many and varied, it was a rollercoaster ride of political and economic turmoil.  It defaulted on its foreign debt of $132Bn.  The exchange rate of the peso went from 1 to 4 to the dollar.  Employment collapsed and imported goods disappeared.  To get by, people used unofficial ‘complementary currencies’ and bartering.  Eventually, the government ignored the IMF’s guidelines and secured a complete recovery.  Today, Argentina has one of the highest GDP growth rates in S. America and has repaid all of its foreign debt.

Breaking the rules worked for Argentina. The proposed solution for Ireland appears to be geared to wider political as well as economic issues, and follows all the rules.

Perhaps Ireland should break the rules too.



Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Economics prizewinner, wrote an article questioning the wisedom of the IMF rules. (Argentina, short-changed: Why the nation that followed the rules fell to pieces)  http://www.yorku.ca/robarts/archives/institute/2002/stiglitz_argentina.pdf

Assumptions - Questioning Beliefs

Do we question our assumptions sufficiently? 

In my blog about Assumption Mapping, one of the variables was, ‘the level of confidence in the belief of the assumption’. 

How do we form our assumptions and how do we define our level of confidence in them?  It is easy to think that assumptions are facts - but they are NOT, they are based upon opinion and often just ‘received wisdom’ (whatever that means).  Furthermore, they are never caste in concrete,  for example, they can be conditionally, partially or even occasionally true – and if not, can often be made to be.

In the late 1990’s sales of Heinz’s ketchup had fallen considerably.  They needed to do something to boost sales.  In a stroke of genius, they just turned the label upside down.  It was the most successful innovation they ever made.  With the bottle ‘upside-down’, the ketchup was easier to pour.  They questioned the assumption that the cap should be at the top.  They sold 75% more ketchup.

Another consideration is that opinion is subject to bias.  Bias is everywhere, it is almost impossible not to have some form of (cognitive) bias.  There is an extensive list of cognitive biases on Wikipedia, all of which can affect our view of  ‘the facts’.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_biases 

All of these can distort our beliefs and there are so many, it is a wonder that we are right about anything.

So when you identify assumptions, do not accept them as fact.

Not only should you question them, you should challenge the thinking that led to them.

Rule Breaking

 A considerable number of organisations have had significant cuts to their funding.  If these reductions were around 10%, the cuts they make could be ‘incremental’ – but I may be wrong.  However, they are facing cuts of the order of 30-40%, which are unlikely to be achieved with incremental savings.

One solution is to simply not supply some services, but this may not be politically, legally or morally acceptable.  And hoping that the Government will change its mind and relent is unrealistic. What to do?

When you are faced with an impossible problem, there is only one course of action.

You have to break a rule.  It is the ONLY way out

Here’s an example of rule-breaking.

Bangladesh is a country where around 50% of the population are ‘rural poor’.  They have no money, no assets, own no land and are often illiterate – and the women are among the poorest.

Getting a loan from a normal bank would be completely impossible for these people.

In 1976, Professor Muhammad Yunus started the Grameen Bank., a project to extend finance to the poor to provide self-employment and lift them out of poverty.  The average loan is around $100 (US). Over 95% of the loans are made to women, no collateral is required and they do not sign any legal documents (many can’t read anyway), and defaulters are never taken to court!

This is not aid, repayments are made weekly and interest is charged at 16%.  It has been a huge success.

Professor Yunus broke all the banking rules and won the Noble Peace prize.

Overcoming funding cuts while maintaining the organisation’s services and integrity will be very stressful and a severe test of leadership.  Long-held and cherished assumptions and beliefs will have to be challenged, perhaps even reversed.


Details of the Grameen Bank project can be found here.  http://www.grameen.com/

Assumption Mapping

In the story about the aspiring Dutch musician, it is clear that questioning  assumptions is a key part of dealing with difficult problems.  One way to analyse assumptions is 'Assumption Mapping', which is one of a number of ‘qualitative mapping’ techniques that can be used for dealing with difficult problems.  Its purpose is to;

1. Make you vocalize your assumptions, and hence communicate them with others.  This may create a discussion about the assumption, or prompt other less obvious assumptions to be stated.

2. Sometimes, useful information can be gained from observing the relationship between assumptions, for example certain types of assumptions may be grouped together or separated from others - why?

Knowledge about the problem can be gained by exploring the background.

Assumption Mapping begins by asking the stakeholders concerned to identify as many assumptions about the problem as they can (this may be helped by identifying the needs/conclusions/outcomes and asking  'on what assumptions are these based?').  We then map these assumptions according to;

1. The certainty of belief in the assumption.
2. The relative importance to the problem.

We then look to see what ideas or conclusions can be drawn from the mapping of the assumptions.  Usually, the most interesting quadrant is where the assumptions are thought to be important, but there is some uncertainty in this belief. 

Another approach is to think about how you could change the criteria that define the axes of the matrix (eg. how you could make it more or less important) -  and how that would affect the problem? 

A different approach may be to ask why certain stakeholders make similar (or dissimilar) assumptions.

The goal of this is to gain an insight into the problem by questioning your assumptions, and it is NOT about being logical, it is about asking unexpected questions that give you a new perspective on the problem.

New perspectives give you new insights into the problem and hence ideas about possible solutions.

Wag Dodge

In 1949, 13 fire-fighters tragically lost their lives in the Mann Gulf fire disaster.

Wag Dodge, was one of three survivors.  The story of his survival is illustrative – and not without controversy*

The fire fighters were in a blind gully when the wind changed direction and swept the fire towards them.  The flames were 20 feet high and moving faster than they could run.  They had nowhere to go, the walls of the gully were too steep.

Think about it, trapped by a fire racing towards you with nowhere to go, what would you do? An impossible problem! How would you survive?

Wag's solution was to light a fire downwind of him!!  The wind blew the flames ahead of him and left a burnt patch.  He crouched down in the burnt patch and was saved.  This practice is now included in fire fighting techniques.

I cannot say how he came to the solution, but it can be seen as a dramatic example of reframing a problem.  It seems as if, instead of thinking about how he could keep away from the fire, he thought about how to keep the fire away from himself.

Reframing a problem is to think about it in a new way, or from a new perspective in order to see something new. 

When you have a difficult problem, reframing is an essential step.


*The report of the incident can be found at http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_int/int_gtr299.pdf

Hornblower's Solution

When I was younger I read all the 'Hornblower' books by CS Forester, great fun.

In one episode, Hornblower had just been promoted to Captain and had the smallest vessel in the navy.  On board he had a 13 year old nephew of the King George - serving as a midshipman.

They were being pursued by a powerful but slower French Frigate.   The wind freshened and while they were reefing the sails, the young prince fell from the rigging into the sea.  Hornblower had an impossible problem.  Either rescue the prince and face capture and possible death,  or leave the prince behind and his career would be in ruins.

A seemingly impossible problem where reason and logic cannot help.  A creative solution is required.

Hornblower's solution was to hoist the signal 'enemy in sight astern'.  The crew were baffled, -  there was no ship to signal.  He then ordered his ship to come about and ready for action.  A bluff.  The French Captain assumed that a powerful British force was just over the horizon and that he was in danger.  He came about and returned to port. Hornblower and the Prince were saved.

A nonsense tale of derring-do, but it illustrates an interesting point.  How did Hornblower solve the problem?  The fact is, he didn’t.

He changed it from his problem, to the French captain’s problem.  He changed the mindset of the French captain by making him question his assumptions.  Why else would a inferior ship turn to attack him if there were no other ships nearby?

When faced with an impossible problem, you have to introduce a radical change - or have one imposed upon you.

Solving an Impossible Problem

This is one of my favourite stories.   It is about solving an impossible problem.

There was a Dutch guy whose father was a General in the Dutch army.  One day he found out that when his dad was younger, he had a minor hit in a pop band.  So he decided that he wanted to make it in the pop world too.  The only problem was, he wasn’t remotely musical. 

However, he did have a friend who had spent years trying to be successful in a rock band.  Unfortunately, he had tired of touring the country performing to indifferent audiences in half empty halls.  So he quit, never again.

There was no way the ex-musician was going to do it all over again, no way he was going put himself through all that misery for nothing, but his friend wanted them to try.  How is it possible to overcome this problem? - two completely irreconcilable positions.  How can they be combined? 

The solution was brilliant!! Absolute genius. 

They started a band that didn’t perform music - a virtual band. 

They did all the stuff that bands do, gave interviews, put up posters, photo shoots, guest appearances, etc. – the whole thing, except they never played a note!  And did it work, you bet.  Within three months they had an article in Holland’s biggest rock magazine.  They even started a franchise.

Perhaps you made the same assumption that I did,

                      - "bands play music".

They needed to force two incompatible ideas together and the way to make it work was to  question a fundamental assumption.

Perhaps we might question our assumptions for other 'impossible' problems.

The full story can be found at http://www.mediamatic.net/page/5816/en

The frog problem.

I once needed to turn my water stop-cock off, but it was down a narrow, three foot hole in the garden.  I had a long enough tap key but I couldn’t reach the tap because it was buried in soil that had fallen in the hole. I decided that I didn’t need to dig it out, just break up the impacted soil in order to reach the tap.  So I got a long spike and put it down the hole but stopped when I heard a loud squeak.  Peering down the hole I saw a small frog or toad at the bottom (don’t ask me what it lived on).  My problem was how to remove the frog using stuff I had to hand, without harming it (a key criterion).

It was too deep for my arm and all the wacky ideas I had didn’t have a hope. How could I remove the frog? (perhaps you could send me your ideas before you read further), I am very practical, but I failed to come up with single a plausible idea.

A few days later I was talking with friends and mentioned my problem.  My friend’s wife instantly came up with a workable solution.  Not only was it a workable solution, it was absolutely brilliant, true genius! 

The interesting point was that my friend’s wife knows nothing about frogs, engineering or mechanics.  She was a theatre nurse in a hospital.  Apparently, in operations, surgeons sometimes need to remove small pieces of tissue that have been cut off, so they use a small tube connected to a suction pump.  Her suggestion was to use my vacuum cleaner (with a four feet long tube) and pick up the frog with the suction.  Needless to say it was a complete triumph, though the frog did seem somewhat bemused.

The point is, my logic had completely failed, I would have come up with a laboured, cumbersome, scrappy solution, but someone with a completely different background and perspective had come up with a brilliant, effortless, low-cost, original and simple solution.

Perhaps we should think about who we include in the discussion when dealing with difficult problems.