Assumption Mapping

In the story about the aspiring Dutch musician, it is clear that questioning  assumptions is a key part of dealing with difficult problems.  One way to analyse assumptions is 'Assumption Mapping', which is one of a number of ‘qualitative mapping’ techniques that can be used for dealing with difficult problems.  Its purpose is to;

1. Make you vocalize your assumptions, and hence communicate them with others.  This may create a discussion about the assumption, or prompt other less obvious assumptions to be stated.

2. Sometimes, useful information can be gained from observing the relationship between assumptions, for example certain types of assumptions may be grouped together or separated from others - why?

Knowledge about the problem can be gained by exploring the background.

Assumption Mapping begins by asking the stakeholders concerned to identify as many assumptions about the problem as they can (this may be helped by identifying the needs/conclusions/outcomes and asking  'on what assumptions are these based?').  We then map these assumptions according to;

1. The certainty of belief in the assumption.
2. The relative importance to the problem.

We then look to see what ideas or conclusions can be drawn from the mapping of the assumptions.  Usually, the most interesting quadrant is where the assumptions are thought to be important, but there is some uncertainty in this belief. 

Another approach is to think about how you could change the criteria that define the axes of the matrix (eg. how you could make it more or less important) -  and how that would affect the problem? 

A different approach may be to ask why certain stakeholders make similar (or dissimilar) assumptions.

The goal of this is to gain an insight into the problem by questioning your assumptions, and it is NOT about being logical, it is about asking unexpected questions that give you a new perspective on the problem.

New perspectives give you new insights into the problem and hence ideas about possible solutions.

Wag Dodge

In 1949, 13 fire-fighters tragically lost their lives in the Mann Gulf fire disaster.

Wag Dodge, was one of three survivors.  The story of his survival is illustrative – and not without controversy*

The fire fighters were in a blind gully when the wind changed direction and swept the fire towards them.  The flames were 20 feet high and moving faster than they could run.  They had nowhere to go, the walls of the gully were too steep.

Think about it, trapped by a fire racing towards you with nowhere to go, what would you do? An impossible problem! How would you survive?

Wag's solution was to light a fire downwind of him!!  The wind blew the flames ahead of him and left a burnt patch.  He crouched down in the burnt patch and was saved.  This practice is now included in fire fighting techniques.

I cannot say how he came to the solution, but it can be seen as a dramatic example of reframing a problem.  It seems as if, instead of thinking about how he could keep away from the fire, he thought about how to keep the fire away from himself.

Reframing a problem is to think about it in a new way, or from a new perspective in order to see something new. 

When you have a difficult problem, reframing is an essential step.


*The report of the incident can be found at http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_int/int_gtr299.pdf

Hornblower's Solution

When I was younger I read all the 'Hornblower' books by CS Forester, great fun.

In one episode, Hornblower had just been promoted to Captain and had the smallest vessel in the navy.  On board he had a 13 year old nephew of the King George - serving as a midshipman.

They were being pursued by a powerful but slower French Frigate.   The wind freshened and while they were reefing the sails, the young prince fell from the rigging into the sea.  Hornblower had an impossible problem.  Either rescue the prince and face capture and possible death,  or leave the prince behind and his career would be in ruins.

A seemingly impossible problem where reason and logic cannot help.  A creative solution is required.

Hornblower's solution was to hoist the signal 'enemy in sight astern'.  The crew were baffled, -  there was no ship to signal.  He then ordered his ship to come about and ready for action.  A bluff.  The French Captain assumed that a powerful British force was just over the horizon and that he was in danger.  He came about and returned to port. Hornblower and the Prince were saved.

A nonsense tale of derring-do, but it illustrates an interesting point.  How did Hornblower solve the problem?  The fact is, he didn’t.

He changed it from his problem, to the French captain’s problem.  He changed the mindset of the French captain by making him question his assumptions.  Why else would a inferior ship turn to attack him if there were no other ships nearby?

When faced with an impossible problem, you have to introduce a radical change - or have one imposed upon you.

Solving an Impossible Problem

This is one of my favourite stories.   It is about solving an impossible problem.

There was a Dutch guy whose father was a General in the Dutch army.  One day he found out that when his dad was younger, he had a minor hit in a pop band.  So he decided that he wanted to make it in the pop world too.  The only problem was, he wasn’t remotely musical. 

However, he did have a friend who had spent years trying to be successful in a rock band.  Unfortunately, he had tired of touring the country performing to indifferent audiences in half empty halls.  So he quit, never again.

There was no way the ex-musician was going to do it all over again, no way he was going put himself through all that misery for nothing, but his friend wanted them to try.  How is it possible to overcome this problem? - two completely irreconcilable positions.  How can they be combined? 

The solution was brilliant!! Absolute genius. 

They started a band that didn’t perform music - a virtual band. 

They did all the stuff that bands do, gave interviews, put up posters, photo shoots, guest appearances, etc. – the whole thing, except they never played a note!  And did it work, you bet.  Within three months they had an article in Holland’s biggest rock magazine.  They even started a franchise.

Perhaps you made the same assumption that I did,

                      - "bands play music".

They needed to force two incompatible ideas together and the way to make it work was to  question a fundamental assumption.

Perhaps we might question our assumptions for other 'impossible' problems.

The full story can be found at http://www.mediamatic.net/page/5816/en

The frog problem.

I once needed to turn my water stop-cock off, but it was down a narrow, three foot hole in the garden.  I had a long enough tap key but I couldn’t reach the tap because it was buried in soil that had fallen in the hole. I decided that I didn’t need to dig it out, just break up the impacted soil in order to reach the tap.  So I got a long spike and put it down the hole but stopped when I heard a loud squeak.  Peering down the hole I saw a small frog or toad at the bottom (don’t ask me what it lived on).  My problem was how to remove the frog using stuff I had to hand, without harming it (a key criterion).

It was too deep for my arm and all the wacky ideas I had didn’t have a hope. How could I remove the frog? (perhaps you could send me your ideas before you read further), I am very practical, but I failed to come up with single a plausible idea.

A few days later I was talking with friends and mentioned my problem.  My friend’s wife instantly came up with a workable solution.  Not only was it a workable solution, it was absolutely brilliant, true genius! 

The interesting point was that my friend’s wife knows nothing about frogs, engineering or mechanics.  She was a theatre nurse in a hospital.  Apparently, in operations, surgeons sometimes need to remove small pieces of tissue that have been cut off, so they use a small tube connected to a suction pump.  Her suggestion was to use my vacuum cleaner (with a four feet long tube) and pick up the frog with the suction.  Needless to say it was a complete triumph, though the frog did seem somewhat bemused.

The point is, my logic had completely failed, I would have come up with a laboured, cumbersome, scrappy solution, but someone with a completely different background and perspective had come up with a brilliant, effortless, low-cost, original and simple solution.

Perhaps we should think about who we include in the discussion when dealing with difficult problems.